The End Of The iPhone Era

By pdo | Published: June 10, 2010

I wrote a post recently about how the Kyocera Zio would mark the turning point in the Android v. iPhone battle.  Like a lot of my posts, I submitted it to Reddit, because I love Reddit.  I didn’t convince everybody.

iPhone buyers aren’t going to break their contracts and buy this lower-end phone.  We all know that.  But as the iPhone market goes down-market to build its customer base, cheaper Android phones are going to be a major hurdle.  Why buy the $200 iPhone with 2-year contract and $110/month plan when you can get an Android phone for a fraction of that price (especially if the Android plan includes unlimited data)?  Apple is a one-phone, one-carrier operation.  LG is planning to release 20 Android handsets this year.  There are already Android phones on every major carrier.  This is what Apple is up against.  They can’t win.

It’s the Windows battle all over again.  Apple can win the first few clashes as the fight begins, but once the swarm starts, there’s no way for the closed system to triumph.  The iPhone was able to beat the G1, but it’s got no chance against the Incredible, EVO, Droid, Nexus One, i1, MyTouch, Zio, etc.  The iPhone era is ending.  Retina display isn’t going to save it.

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  • Tyler
    So if you're suggesting this is the Windows battle all over again, then you're also suggesting that those of us that stick loyal to Apple for building quality, polished products we will ultimately be more satisfied than those that switched to Android, an OS that will fail in the same way that Windows has. Their device count will increase and their overall user experience will get worse because there will be too many devices for the company to make the experience seamless across them all.
  • Tyler -- You're making a fanboy argument. I'm making a business argument. Yes, those with a strong Apple bias will continue to find Apple products faultless. They'll put a bumper on their iPhone 4s and ignore their yellow-tinted iMac screens. For many, spending more increases the perceived value of the purchase (and Apple is happy to exploit this). Windows, however, has captured over 90% of the market. It's difficult to call this a failure. Apple lost and their user experience didn't save them. The same situation is playing out as they recreate the battle with Google Android. Apple won't win this time either.
  • Guest
    "Why buy the $200 iPhone with 2-year contract and $110/month plan when you can get an Android phone for a fraction of that price"

    Really? Because you get a fraction of the apps and a fraction of the build quality.
  • Guest
    same person as above -- let me clarify that I do write apps for both platforms. I'm not just a random Anboy/Fanboy.

    Android's cool, but marketed to a niche of reddit-type folks. Android's most successful phone - really their only truly successful phone - was the Droid (a fantastic device) and that's only because it had a very iPhone-like marketing campaign full of ambiguous hyperbole instead of the typically stat and "looks better on paper" oriented android device marketing campaigns.

    Android's NDK may help alleviate this with facilitated porting of iPhone apps and running them in a much more efficient manner than Dalvik-interpreted slowness, but unless that catches on, Android's never going to breach the niche. Sorry!
  • App counts are a temporary hurdle. I bet there was more Apple II software at one point than Windows software too -- it even had Oregon Trail and it still lost the battle.

    Agree on the marketing angle. A switch in strategy would be decisive:
    http://www.pauldavidolson.com/blog/2010/google-needs-frank-gehry-to-topple-apple/
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