1. NBC’s — Conan’s ratings are poor, therefore we cannot afford to continue.
2. Conan’s — Network incompetence is hurting the show, we’ll be able to figure it out with more time.

In hindsight, both contained some truth, but incompetence played a fairly big role in Conan’s failure.  Here’s how a little different thinking would have allowed him to succeed.

A TV Exec’s Dream

The hope was simple: bring in Conan and attract a younger audience; spin off Jay and grow his older audience with an earlier show.  That may make perfect logical sense to a TV executive — create two hit shows to double traffic.  But if you ask any political analyst, it is, as Sarah Palin would say, retarded.

The Political Reality

What NBC basically engineered was a Gore / Nader or a Bush / Perot situation.  They created a viable third party that siphoned votes from the main players.  People that would have chosen Conan’s Tonight Show if given two options were given a third option — Jay’s earlier show.  This group abandoned Conan’s show and didn’t stick around to watch more comedy later in the evening.   Jay’s ratings were abysmally low, but if added to Conan’s they would have likely put him ahead in the Dave vs. Conan battle.  By allowing Jay to have an earlier show, NBC ensured Conan’s failure.  And by fracturing the NBC audience, they ensured more people would give David Letterman another look.

And all this fits with the way the Tonight Show was handed off last time.  Johnny Carson didn’t spin off into an earlier slot — he turned into a recluse and was nowhere to be found.

So Conan, sorry man.  Can’t wait to catch your live show.

Get tickets to see Conan O'Brien live

It was a crowded mess, so we bailed early, exchanged our tickets, and watched it the next day instead.  Which is lesson 1.

1. Be early.  Web publishing it a lot like going to the movies — there’s no reason to be last to the party.  The good seats and the good drinks go to those that arrive first.  And when you’re saving a damsel in distress, best to arrive before she’s dead.
2. Know when to give up (at the movies and, in the case of Holmes, with women).  We’re getting to be much better at spotting lost causes than we used to be.  If we arrive at a restaurant and it seems hurried and behind, we’ll leave.  It’s not worth the agony.  Better to just try again another time than to get a pain in your neck.
3. Facts, you need facts.  Holmes is great when he’s in need of data.  He sniffs out the facts and then pieces together a theory.
4. Details matter.  Better to know that one of the bad guys has custom cap-toed bluchers than to know that the bad guy wears black dress shoes.
5. Theories come after you get the facts.  Don’t theorize before you have facts or you will “collect facts to fit the theory instead of creating theories to fit the facts”.  With web analytics it’s always tempting to theorize early on.  Best to collect data first.  Best to keep your distance from theories lest they become as ingrained as beliefs.
6. Be sneaky.  Sometimes you need to trick people (and Google Analytics) to get the data you need.  Untricked, they may just give you the data they think you want.  (Read about tainted altruism data in SuperFreakonomics.)  Many times you can’t just ask and receive.  You need to ask smartly.
7. Avoid fear.  Fear is poor motivation for meaningful action and reasoning.  Fear pollutes your mind.
8. When fighting somebody bigger than you, distract him, block his attack, go after the jaw (it’s weak), then the ribs (crack them), then punch him in the femur.  Finish him off with a heel kick to the chest.

I can’t wait to see what I learn from Avatar.