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[S]omeday there will be a computer hardware company with a highly visible woman at (or very near) the helm, somebody to hold forth on the business page of the Times and on CNBC — kind of like a female Bill Gates (but with a better haircut). Its products will emphasize not the size of the RAM or the speed of the microprocessor but rather ease of use, versatility and convenience. It will focus on results, not process. Its computers will be sold like refrigerators instead of like scientific instruments. The most heavily promoted feature will be a toll-free number for plainspoken technical help when a program freezes or a printer malfunctions. Then, some agency will begin using images of women in its TV and print ads, maybe even in a campaign that lampoons how men relate to technology. A retail chain will make a point of hiring female staff, and human beings, not spec sheets, will be responsible for educating customers and answering their questions. Finally, designers will provide ergonomically improved keyboards. Computers will be easy to clean (they’re almost impossible now). They’ll even come in colors other than putty and black!

Then:

[P]ocket PCs of the future (like today’s palm-size organizers, only better) will have plenty of memory for the times when yours fails, such as when you need a phone number, or you’re standing in the middle of the supermarket and can’t remember why.

The guy not only outlines the rise of Apple, just getting the gender of its leader wrong, he predicts the smartphone revolution. As he was writing this, Steve Jobs was creating the teal iMac and laying the foundation for Apple retail stores (a move likely based on the same observations Mr. Underhill made). The Genius Bar was on its way along with the Mac vs. PC commercials. iTunes would make digital music just work … as long as you bought it from Apple and used an iPod. It’s amazing. A decade after that, and we have the iPad, the first easy-to-clean computer. All these moves, Mr. Underhill argues, are smart to attract female buyers. He describes the spec-based selling of computers as a boy’s club akin to the hardware store. Jobs clearly picked up on this too.

Underhill goes even further:

[Wheelchairs] will surely receive a makeover [as the population ages] … They won’t even be called wheelchairs … They’ll be just cool conveniences, something for the geezer who has everything.

Segway! Cripes. Nicely done, Mr. Underhill.

The book is amazingly accurate and was fun to read. Check it out if you want to learn more about gender-specific shopping habits. But be warned: it’s a bit creepy how accurate it is.

Download a copy if you want to use it on your site:

I campaigned tirelessly to enlighten my fellow classmates at Copenhagen Business School about this injustice, about why they should get a Mac. I managed to convert my entire study group and a fair number of other people too. It was invigorating to be able to convince people of the fundamentals.

…

Still, financial results of the likes Apple delivered yesterday serve as an affirmation of all that energy spent telling their story. Believing in the underdog. Like your favorite home team who couldn’t get into premier league while growing up just won the Superbowl, the Stanley Cup, and the World Series all together for the 10th time in a row — and you were the only one to believe in them. It’s an immensely satisfying feeling.

…

I’m well aware that this level of gushing is somewhat unbefitting in public, and I normally wouldn’t indulge the impulse. I’m just so proud of Apple that I’m willing to look foolish saying so.

No other company has inspired me more when it comes to marketing, design, focus, and even capitalism than Apple. Make the best damn product out there, charge a profitable price, and win the world.

What triggered this gushing? Apple’s quarterly profit results. He was just so happy they had made so much money. Which makes no sense if all you do is buy their products, but it makes all the sense in the world if you own their stock.

I still don’t understand Apple, I guess.

*Everybody except me, perhaps. I really, really dislike iTunes.

Look, you’re the CMO. You don’t have time for the Google or the Facebook or the Twitter. You have time for reading the iCrossing Great Finds blog, that’s about it. And LinkedIn? You’re not unemployed. Come on.

However, effectively managing your online identity is good insurance against negative content surfacing in search results targeting your name. If somebody writes a blog post about how you “suck,” it sure would be nice for that not to show up on page one of Google. What then do you do?

Find a body double – somebody with your same name – and make him your Saddam Hussein-style body double on Google. If your body double is on Facebook, sign him up for Twitter. If he’s on LinkedIn, get him on Squidoo. Create a Wikipedia page for him. Hell, create a custom home page with an optimized domain name about how great this guy is. Optimize the shit out of everything. Build links like crazy. Buy some AdWords and some 300×250 displays. Create YouTube videos about how your body double is totally awesome, and curate a Tumblr blog of his favorite images. Consider releasing a sex tape. Negative press targeting you won’t have a chance.

Or you could actively manage your own search presence. But search is just a fad anyway. Real business is done on paper.

Paul’s traveling the country as a digital nomad. Keep track of him, his wife, and their minivan home on drivinginertia.com.

People that still have the iPhone 3G, 3Gs

Not everybody pulled the trigger on the iPhone 4.  There are still a lot of 3s out there.  Either people’s contracts didn’t line up or they were scared off by the antenna thing — or they just didn’t want to spend the money — people that have the 3G/3GS version of the iPhone are the most likely to grab an iPhone 5.  Why?  Because people with the iPhone 4 just bought theirs, and it’s still badass.  The 3G/3GS just isn’t hip anymore.  It’s old.  It’s tired.  The 5 will be a big upgrade for anybody in this group.  And given that they’re already part of the family, they’re less likely to go Android.  But they will likely switch carriers.

The Apple Lovers

Yep, that’s an easy one.  People LOVE Apple.  And if you don’t care about cost and want the latest, greatest Apple toy, you’ll get one.

I’d bet these two groups make up at least 90% of the iPhone 5 market.  And they will buy a LOT of iPhones in the first month or so — and this will bey heavily hyped.  But long-term, I’m doubtful of Apple’s chances.  Mostly because of who’s NOT going to buy:

iPhone 4 Normals

Normal people, who don’t have sex dreams about Steve Jobs, are unlikely to buy the iPhone 5 if they already have an iPhone 4.  That’s tough.  The iPhone 4 was a good seller, and it’s unlikely the 5 is compelling enough to convince an owner of a 4 to upgrade.  As stated earlier, the 4 is badass.  So unless you’ve broken yours or cracked its case or NEED to switch networks, you’ll stick with what you’ve got.

The Kids

Will somebody think of the children?  Even if Apple releases a “cheap” version of the iPhone, the kids aren’t going to flock to it.  Mom and dad have iPhones.  The kids have Androids.  And the kids have Android phones because mommy and daddy can buy them for nothing (and iPhones aren’t cool anyway).  Unless Apple gives the cheapie version away for free, they’re not going to be able to compete with Google’s offering on price.  Can’t do it.

And no parents are such Apple fans that they’ll insist their children carry iPhones.  But nearly every parent likes to save money.  Android wins this round.  And these are the customers Apple can’t afford to lose.  And unless Sprint gives them away, it’s likely to lose too.

The other day I was on a call with Phoenix search engine optimization guru, James Constable, and he realized the audience was daunted.  They needed inspiration.  They needed encouragement.  They needed motivation …  They needed propaganda posters, James decided.  Something like: Keep Calm and Optimize.  SEO Needs YOU!

That’d do it.  SEO isn’t rocket science.  We can all do this.  Let’s all do this.  Post these in your offices immediately.

So far I’ve found their reputation for fanatical service to be absolutely true.  I love being able to jump on chat and immediately having somebody available.  And I’m excited about having Dappered on a cluster of servers instead of a single VPS.  I’m confident their reputation for reliability is true as well.

photo credit: mootown | Affordable men’s style needs more internets.

Sure, there are better-spec’d phones in the market, but the difference between the top-of-the-line and the entry-line is getting smaller by the day.  Apple is going to have a tough time responding to this new reality.  The Apple mystic is one of exclusivity and luxury.  That brand promise is tough to balance when you need to go after mass-market success with lower-cost products.  Sure, there are rumors about some sort of lower-end iPhone Lite, but I don’t like their odds of pulling this off.  iPhones are already becoming ubiquitous and boring, while Google’s multi-handset approach allows buyers to better identify with their purchase. Virgin Mobile’s Motorola Triumph is youthful and fun.  Sprint’s EVO 4Gs are high-tech and fast.  There’s the HTC Status on AT&T, an Android-powered phone that plays off Facebook updates.  There’s the Droid Pro, a business-focused phone from Verizon.

photo credit: antwerpenR

Honestly, I don’t see how Apple wins this.  They need to keep “innovating” — but how long will it be before we realize all they’re doing is using bigger, gee-wiz touchscreens on more products?  It took them about 3 years to start falling behind in the phone arena.  It’ll be a surprise to me if the iPad is able to hold off the competition as long.  The end of the Apple era is here (and here).

Update: There are issues.  Bummer.