photo credit: petrr

And it’s made into a better status symbol because AT&T’s network is SO BAD, because the only thing better than getting into the best party in town is complaining about how much it sucks, how much better it is elsewhere.  Look at me, I have what is widely regarded as the BEST phone and I think it sucks.  Therefore, I must be extra awesome.

Verizon changes that dynamic.  The price will drop, it’ll actually work, and instead of being a thing greater than a phone, it’ll turn into just another phone.  It will lose it’s panache. It will become a product.  And that’s bad news for Apple, because Apple doesn’t sell products — Apple sells status.  And status only sells if some people don’t get to have it and if those willing to pay for it think they’re getting it.

They have a good thing going with Google

Verizon and Google are BFFs and there’s a good reason — Google-powered phones are selling great.  Verizon hit a big home run with Motorola’s Droid and they’ve continued their streak with the HTC Incredible and the Droid X.  The Droid 2 will be another hit.  And they’re even drafting policy together — Verizon and Google just announced their not-quite-net-neutrality policy recommendations.  They like each other.  Like like.  Verizon isn’t going to cheat on its sweetheart.

Android is now the leader

Thanks largely to Verizon, Android is now the leader of the smartphone market.  Sure, the iPhone still sells well, but Android-powered phones are selling at a rate of 200,000 a DAY.  That’s a lot of Google phones.  And they have all the good buzz.  Apple, as a company, is freaking people out — the Gizmodo thing, the response to the iPhone 4 antenna issues, the App Store rules — nobody understands them.  By positioning itself as the opposite of Apple, Google is building a huge audience.  Google knows it can win against Apple in the mobile OS market — just like Windows beat out Apple for control of the PC OS market.  Hell, Mark Zuckerberg just switched.  He’s the face of the future, not Steve Jobs.

Verizon doesn’t want THOSE customers

If Verizon were to carry the iPhone, the first to switch over would be the loudest, whiniest, most demanding, most hard to please customers.  Verizon shouldn’t want them as customers.  The ideal customer is somebody that’s willing to pay a lot but expects a little.  Sure, the AT&T abandoners will be willing to pay a premium, but they’ll be resource hogs and data addicts.  Verizon should go after other customers.

Carrying the iPhone will help AT&T

The customers most likely to jump-ship and switch to Verizon are likely the customers causing AT&T the most harm.  It’s in Verizon’s best interest to have these customers continue to harm their competitor.  If they steal these customers, it’ll help AT&T by reducing the strain on AT&T’s network.  It’s better for Verizon to confound these customers with a Sprint/T-Mobile decision.  The grass is definitely greener with Verizon, but will these customers jump to Sprint or T-Mobile?  Maybe not.  Verizon should gamble on this and allow AT&T to continue to struggle with the iPhone.  The iPhone is a noose around AT&T’s neck and Verizon shouldn’t loosen the knot by carrying the iPhone too.

Perpetuating the Verizon myth is good marketing

As long as AT&T struggles and Sprint and T-Mobile are smaller, the Verizon pastures will continue to have an allure.  This myth is great marketing, and an influx of iPhone subscribers could hurt the myth.  Better to perpetuate it longer while other networks continue to hurt.

So my money is on a Verizon snub.  They shouldn’t want the iPhone.  They were smart to pair up with Google and the Apple-AT&T deal will likely be a long-term failure.  AT&T and Apple have had a good run, but Verizon is still king of the networks and Google will soon be the undisputed king of the mobile OS market.  And it’ll be easier for Verizon to stay king by continuing to favor Google and by ignoring the iPhone.

Listen to the undertones and you’ll here this: The iPhone 4Gs is coming to Sprint.

photo credit: 91RS

Here’s why it makes sense:

1. The iPhone is getting some serious heat.  AT&T is getting some serious heat for their shitty network, halting sales in New York, and general ineptitude.  Add in competition from the Nexus One, the Droid, (the) Google, Palm, etc.  Apple needs a distraction.  Enter the iSlate … a computer so far behind its competitors that it exists only in rumor form.  It buys them some time while they sever ties, upgrade, and switch to …
2. Sprint.  Sprint has the the largest (only?) 4G network.  The iPhone is a data hog.  It needs 4G.
3. Then there’s the exclusivity … but not the exclusivity you’re thinking.  The thing needs to be perceived as rare and premium, so Apple can’t partner with Verizon.  Can you imagine what would happen if any corn farmer in Iowa could buy an iPhone?  Or if Bob the grave-digger developed a GPS-enabled plot finding app?  The iPhone is an exclusive status symbol — it can’t become ubiquitous.
4. And think about it: the Apple II GS came out twenty years ago.  Last year there was the 3Gs … the 4Gs makes sense.  And who has a 4G network?  The infinite rumor loop continues!

So, there you go.  Get your iPhone 4Gs this spring from Sprint.

*This article may be entirely untrue … or is that what Steve Jobs wants us to think?