1. NBC’s — Conan’s ratings are poor, therefore we cannot afford to continue.
2. Conan’s — Network incompetence is hurting the show, we’ll be able to figure it out with more time.

In hindsight, both contained some truth, but incompetence played a fairly big role in Conan’s failure.  Here’s how a little different thinking would have allowed him to succeed.

A TV Exec’s Dream

The hope was simple: bring in Conan and attract a younger audience; spin off Jay and grow his older audience with an earlier show.  That may make perfect logical sense to a TV executive — create two hit shows to double traffic.  But if you ask any political analyst, it is, as Sarah Palin would say, retarded.

The Political Reality

What NBC basically engineered was a Gore / Nader or a Bush / Perot situation.  They created a viable third party that siphoned votes from the main players.  People that would have chosen Conan’s Tonight Show if given two options were given a third option — Jay’s earlier show.  This group abandoned Conan’s show and didn’t stick around to watch more comedy later in the evening.   Jay’s ratings were abysmally low, but if added to Conan’s they would have likely put him ahead in the Dave vs. Conan battle.  By allowing Jay to have an earlier show, NBC ensured Conan’s failure.  And by fracturing the NBC audience, they ensured more people would give David Letterman another look.

And all this fits with the way the Tonight Show was handed off last time.  Johnny Carson didn’t spin off into an earlier slot — he turned into a recluse and was nowhere to be found.

So Conan, sorry man.  Can’t wait to catch your live show.

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